Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing32/37, 354 YDS, 1 TD
- Joe MixonRushing19 CAR, 68 YDS, 2 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving11 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing22/29, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing11 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Evan EngramReceiving9 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT1:45Evan McPherson 48 Yd Field Goal34–31
- Q40:26Brandon McManus 40 Yd Field Goal31–31
- Q42:28Evan McPherson 54 Yd Field Goal31–28
- Q49:27Jake Browning 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)28–28
- Q33:10Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)21–28
- Q35:26Parker Washington 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)21–21
- Q311:50Ja'Marr Chase 76 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)21–14
- Q21:04Joe Mixon 2 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)14–14
- Q26:24Evan Engram 22 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)7–14
- Q212:24Joe Mixon 6 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q16:51Travis Etienne Jr. 4 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:26Parker Washington 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)CIN 21 – 21 JAX · JAX 33% → 63% +29JAX 33% → 63%+29 pts
- Q49:27Jake Browning 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 28 – 28 JAX · CIN 9% → 41% +32CIN 9% → 41%+32 pts
- Q42:28Evan McPherson 54 Yd Field GoalCIN 31 – 28 JAX · CIN 46% → 79% +34CIN 46% → 79%+34 pts
- Q40:26Brandon McManus 40 Yd Field GoalCIN 31 – 31 JAX · JAX 1% → 52% +50JAX 1% → 52%+50 pts
- OT1:45Evan McPherson 48 Yd Field GoalCIN 34 – 31 JAX · CIN 46% → 84% +38CIN 46% → 84%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -7
- JAX 73%
- Fair odds
- JAX -246
- CIN +246 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 18.3 – 24.7 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −50 | — | CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +169 Elo | JAX 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 71.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3219.3 | Points scored | 23.110th of 32 |
| 21st of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 20.512th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.7 | Margin | +2.610th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.88 | Yards per play | 5.2415th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.15 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5226th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.