Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing23/44, 254 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing12 CAR, 48 YDS
- Elijah MooreReceiving4 REC, 83 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing22/37, 279 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing21 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving4 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:36Joe Flacco sacked in end zone for a Safety19–36
- Q41:56Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)19–34
- Q43:48Cooper Kupp 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)19–27
- Q48:49Harrison Bryant 8 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins PAT failed)19–20
- Q30:39Demarcus Robinson 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)13–20
- Q34:58Dustin Hopkins 24 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q20:00Lucas Havrisik 28 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q22:06Dustin Hopkins 40 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q13:59Puka Nacua 70 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)7–10
- Q16:28Lucas Havrisik 44 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q110:18Jerome Ford 24 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:18Jerome Ford 24 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 7 – 0 LAR · CLE 48% → 65% +18CLE 48% → 65%+18 pts
- Q13:59Puka Nacua 70 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)CLE 7 – 10 LAR · LAR 41% → 60% +19LAR 41% → 60%+19 pts
- Q30:39Demarcus Robinson 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)CLE 13 – 20 LAR · LAR 51% → 81% +30LAR 51% → 81%+30 pts
- Q48:49Harrison Bryant 8 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins PAT failed)CLE 19 – 20 LAR · CLE 12% → 43% +30CLE 12% → 43%+30 pts
- Q43:48Cooper Kupp 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)CLE 19 – 27 LAR · LAR 60% → 98% +37LAR 60% → 98%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -0.5
- LAR 51%
- Fair odds
- LAR -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 20.8 – 21.5 LAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −28 | +3 | CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +9 Elo | LAR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 52.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3221.7 | Points scored | 21.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.0 | Points allowed | 21.318th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+2.7 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.46 | Yards per play | 5.3812th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2316th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.