Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Dorian Thompson-RobinsonPassing14/29, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- Jerome FordRushing9 CAR, 65 YDS
- David NjokuReceiving6 REC, 59 YDS
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing13/22, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing18 CAR, 65 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving3 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:19Phillip Walker sacked in the end zone by Zach Allen for a Safety12–29
- Q44:19Wil Lutz 34 Yd Field Goal12–27
- Q413:29Adam Trautman 8 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)12–24
- Q31:25Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field Goal12–17
- Q36:42Harrison Bryant 2 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q20:22Dustin Hopkins 24 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q25:59Dustin Hopkins 36 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q211:11Russell Wilson 2 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)0–14
- Q18:14Samaje Perine 3 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:14Samaje Perine 3 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)CLE 0 – 7 DEN · DEN 54% → 72% +17DEN 54% → 72%+17 pts
- Q211:11Russell Wilson 2 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)CLE 0 – 14 DEN · DEN 74% → 88% +14DEN 74% → 88%+14 pts
- Q36:42Harrison Bryant 2 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CLE 12 – 14 DEN · CLE 18% → 39% +21CLE 18% → 39%+21 pts
- Q31:25Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field GoalCLE 12 – 17 DEN · DEN 62% → 75% +13DEN 62% → 75%+13 pts
- Q413:29Adam Trautman 8 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)CLE 12 – 24 DEN · DEN 76% → 95% +19DEN 76% → 95%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Broncos 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- DEN 53%
- Fair odds
- DEN -121
- CLE +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 21.2 – 22.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −47 | — | CLE: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, usually Deshaun Watson · DEN: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +24 Elo | DEN 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.7 | Points scored | 21.715th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218.0 | Points allowed | 26.831st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+4.7 | Margin | −5.126th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.52 | Yards per play | 5.2317th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.51 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3132nd of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.