Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Joshua DobbsPassing20/32, 221 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing18 CAR, 81 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving4 REC, 55 YDS
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing27/35, 259 YDS, 1 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing11 CAR, 37 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving4 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:03Courtland Sutton 15 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)20–21
- Q43:17Greg Joseph 30 Yd Field Goal20–15
- Q410:37Wil Lutz 28 Yd Field Goal17–15
- Q412:40Wil Lutz 37 Yd Field Goal17–12
- Q37:55Joshua Dobbs 10 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)17–9
- Q20:00Wil Lutz 52 Yd Field Goal10–9
- Q24:08Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q28:09Greg Joseph 34 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q214:53Josh Oliver 3 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)7–3
- Q110:28Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:53Josh Oliver 3 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 7 – 3 DEN · MIN 43% → 63% +20MIN 43% → 63%+20 pts
- Q37:55Joshua Dobbs 10 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 17 – 9 DEN · MIN 55% → 80% +25MIN 55% → 80%+25 pts
- Q410:37Wil Lutz 28 Yd Field GoalMIN 17 – 15 DEN · DEN 22% → 38% +15DEN 22% → 38%+15 pts
- Q43:17Greg Joseph 30 Yd Field GoalMIN 20 – 15 DEN · MIN 71% → 91% +20MIN 71% → 91%+20 pts
- Q41:03Courtland Sutton 15 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)MIN 20 – 21 DEN · DEN <1% → 68% +67DEN <1% → 68%+67 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Vikings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -106
- DEN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 22.7 – 22.2 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −20 | — | MIN: Joshua Dobbs, usually Kirk Cousins · DEN: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 21.815th of 32 |
| 15th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 27.631st of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.4 | Margin | −5.827th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 5.1917th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 6.4132nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 2–319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.