New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Jameis WinstonPassing13/25, 122 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing9 CAR, 42 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving6 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Joshua DobbsPassing23/34, 268 YDS, 1 TD
- Ty ChandlerRushing15 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- T.J. HockensonReceiving11 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:40A.T. Perry 15 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Alvin Kamara Run for Two-Point Conversion)19–27
- Q35:26Chris Olave 14 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Alvin Kamara Run for Two-Point Conversion)11–27
- Q310:09Greg Joseph 33 Yd Field Goal3–27
- Q20:16T.J. Hockenson 28 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)3–24
- Q23:30Joshua Dobbs 7 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)3–17
- Q210:14Ty Chandler 2 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)3–10
- Q11:19Blake Grupe 48 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:47Greg Joseph 40 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:47Greg Joseph 40 Yd Field GoalNO 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 54% → 62% +8MIN 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q11:19Blake Grupe 48 Yd Field GoalNO 3 – 3 MIN · NO 38% → 46% +8NO 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q210:14Ty Chandler 2 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)NO 3 – 10 MIN · MIN 53% → 73% +20MIN 53% → 73%+20 pts
- Q23:30Joshua Dobbs 7 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)NO 3 – 17 MIN · MIN 75% → 89% +15MIN 75% → 89%+15 pts
- Q411:40A.T. Perry 15 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Alvin Kamara Run for Two-Point Conversion)NO 19 – 27 MIN · NO 1% → 12% +11NO 1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Vikings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- NO +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.8 – 22.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −34 | NO: Derek Carr · MIN: Joshua Dobbs, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +35 Elo | MIN 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3221.7 | Points scored | 22.913th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.0 | Points allowed | 21.117th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.7 | Margin | +1.814th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.97 | Yards per play | 5.597th of 32 |
| 9th of 324.97 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0410th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.