Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing23/41, 294 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing25 CAR, 114 YDS
- Cooper KuppReceiving8 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing24/43, 316 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Lamar JacksonRushing11 CAR, 70 YDS
- Odell Beckham Jr.Receiving4 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT7:42Tylan Wallace 76 Yd Punt Return31–37
- Q40:07Lucas Havrisik 36 Yd Field Goal31–31
- Q41:16Zay Flowers 21 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson Pass to Zay Flowers for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
- Q44:41Demarcus Robinson 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–23
- Q411:17Justin Tucker 33 Yd Field Goal22–23
- Q35:54Tyler Linderbaum fumble out of bounds in end zone for a Safety22–20
- Q310:02Justin Tucker 47 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q20:09Justin Tucker 31 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q21:45Lucas Havrisik 51 Yd Field Goal20–14
- Q25:00Davis Allen 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)17–14
- Q29:40Odell Beckham Jr. 46 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–14
- Q212:01Cooper Kupp 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)10–7
- Q10:25Isaiah Likely 54 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)3–7
- Q15:35Lucas Havrisik 27 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:00Davis Allen 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)LAR 17 – 14 BAL · LAR 22% → 42% +20LAR 22% → 42%+20 pts
- Q44:41Demarcus Robinson 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LAR 28 – 23 BAL · LAR 35% → 83% +48LAR 35% → 83%+48 pts
- Q41:16Zay Flowers 21 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson Pass to Zay Flowers for Two-Point Conversion)LAR 28 – 31 BAL · BAL 2% → 92% +90BAL 2% → 92%+90 pts
- Q40:07Lucas Havrisik 36 Yd Field GoalLAR 31 – 31 BAL · LAR <1% → 49% +49LAR <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT7:42Tylan Wallace 76 Yd Punt ReturnLAR 31 – 37 BAL · BAL 58% → 90% +31BAL 58% → 90%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -7.5
- BAL 75%
- Fair odds
- BAL -253
- LAR +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 18.4 – 25.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1671 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | LAR: Matthew Stafford · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +193 Elo | BAL 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 71.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.3 | Points scored | 27.07th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.1 | Points allowed | 15.61st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.3 | Margin | +11.43rd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.47 | Yards per play | 5.776th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 4.221st of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 11th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.