Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing18/32, 177 YDS, 1 TD
- Keaton MitchellRushing9 CAR, 64 YDS
- Isaiah LikelyReceiving4 REC, 40 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing29/44, 217 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Justin HerbertRushing4 CAR, 47 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving14 REC, 106 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:36Zay Flowers 37 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)20–10
- Q48:32Gerald Everett 3 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)13–10
- Q310:53Justin Tucker 48 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q21:12Justin Tucker 42 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q210:41Zay Flowers 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–3
- Q19:03Cameron Dicker 39 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:03Cameron Dicker 39 Yd Field GoalBAL 0 – 3 LAC · LAC 39% → 47% +8LAC 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q210:41Zay Flowers 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 3 LAC · BAL 50% → 70% +20BAL 50% → 70%+20 pts
- Q21:12Justin Tucker 42 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 3 LAC · BAL 71% → 79% +8BAL 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q48:32Gerald Everett 3 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)BAL 13 – 10 LAC · LAC 4% → 27% +23LAC 4% → 27%+23 pts
- Q41:36Zay Flowers 37 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 20 – 10 LAC · BAL 89% → >99% +11BAL 89% → >99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -4
- BAL 64%
- Fair odds
- BAL -157
- LAC +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 24.3 – 21.1 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +103 Elo | BAL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.6 | Points scored | 25.98th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216.1 | Points allowed | 23.825th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+11.5 | Margin | +2.112th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.83 | Yards per play | 5.5310th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.22 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8329th of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.