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Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast

FinalCBS

Away

Lions

7-2

41–38

at

Home

Chargers

4-5

DET 49%LAC 51%

You didn't pick this one.

SoFi Stadium · CBS

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.

LAC favored DET favored13 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4LAC50%DET

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Lions
Chargers

Scoring summary

  • Q40:00Riley Patterson 41 Yd Field Goal41–38
  • Q43:34Keenan Allen 38 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)38–38
  • Q47:30Brock Wright 25 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)38–31
  • Q411:30Quentin Johnston 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)31–31
  • Q34:31Amon-Ra St. Brown 20 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)31–24
  • Q37:59Jalen Guyton 18 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)24–24
  • Q20:23Austin Ekeler 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)24–17
  • Q23:07David Montgomery 75 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)24–10
  • Q23:21Keenan Allen 29 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)17–10
  • Q27:30Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)17–3
  • Q14:18Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)10–3
  • Q16:54Cameron Dicker 48 Yd Field Goal3–3
  • Q110:09Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field Goal3–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q34:31Amon-Ra St. Brown 20 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 31 – 24 LAC · DET 49% → 77% +28
  2. Q411:30Quentin Johnston 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)DET 31 – 31 LAC · LAC 16% → 51% +34
  3. Q47:30Brock Wright 25 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 38 – 31 LAC · DET 50% → 89% +40
  4. Q43:34Keenan Allen 38 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)DET 38 – 38 LAC · LAC 4% → 50% +47
  5. Q40:00Riley Patterson 41 Yd Field GoalDET 41 – 38 LAC · DET 49% → 100% +51

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Chargers 51%

Toss-upMiss
DET 49%LAC 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
LAC 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAC -0.5
LAC 51%
Fair odds
LAC -105
DET +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DET 22.1 – 22.5 LAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDETLACWhy
Team rating15781549Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks——DET: Jared Goff · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score)
Elo ratingsLAC +7 EloLAC 51.1%
Market-implied ratingsLAC 51.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAC 51.3%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers compared, with each team's league rank
DETStatLAC
8th of 3225.0Points scored25.17th of 32
13th of 3220.6Points allowed21.821st of 32
9th of 32+4.4Margin+3.410th of 32
7th of 325.65Yards per play5.3411th of 32
15th of 325.10Yards allowed per play5.5725th of 32
4th of 323–1Road vs home2–217th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

LionsChargers
13001400150016001700league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.