Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jacoby BrissettPassing8/10, 124 YDS, 2 TD
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 35 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving6 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing25/33, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing27 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- Cooper KuppReceiving8 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:46Curtis Samuel 3 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Joey Slye PAT blocked)20–28
- Q47:17Terry McLaurin 29 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Joey Slye Kick)14–28
- Q413:25Demarcus Robinson 23 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Kyren Williams Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–28
- Q36:25Curtis Samuel 19 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)7–20
- Q314:07Cooper Kupp 62 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)0–20
- Q20:03Lucas Havrisik 27 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q22:19Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)0–10
- Q17:39Lucas Havrisik 22 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:39Lucas Havrisik 22 Yd Field GoalWSH 0 – 3 LAR · LAR 71% → 77% +6LAR 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q22:19Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)WSH 0 – 10 LAR · LAR 75% → 90% +15LAR 75% → 90%+15 pts
- Q20:03Lucas Havrisik 27 Yd Field GoalWSH 0 – 13 LAR · LAR 90% → 94% +4LAR 90% → 94%+4 pts
- Q314:07Cooper Kupp 62 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)WSH 0 – 20 LAR · LAR 94% → 99% +4LAR 94% → 99%+4 pts
- Q36:25Curtis Samuel 19 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 7 – 20 LAR · WSH <1% → 4% +4WSH <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -8
- LAR 76%
- Fair odds
- LAR -260
- WSH +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 19.9 – 26.7 LAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +4 | WSH: Sam Howell · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +199 Elo | LAR 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 72.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.1 | Points scored | 23.010th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3230.4 | Points allowed | 22.320th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.3 | Margin | +0.714th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.13 | Yards per play | 5.489th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.01 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2819th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 14th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.