Washington Commanders at New York Jets, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jacoby BrissettPassing10/13, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 58 YDS, 2 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving3 REC, 50 YDS
Jets- Trevor SiemianPassing27/49, 217 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing20 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 TD
- Breece HallReceiving12 REC, 96 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:05Greg Zuerlein 54 Yd Field Goal28–30
- Q44:52Antonio Gibson 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)28–27
- Q49:33Chris Rodriguez Jr. 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)21–27
- Q33:26Logan Thomas 15 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Joey Slye Kick)14–27
- Q21:35Breece Hall 2 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)7–27
- Q26:38Chris Rodriguez Jr. 12 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)7–20
- Q29:10Greg Zuerlein 27 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q19:37Breece Hall 36 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)0–17
- Q111:26Jason Brownlee 8 Yd pass from Trevor Siemian (Greg Zuerlein Kick)0–10
- Q113:00Greg Zuerlein 25 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:26Jason Brownlee 8 Yd pass from Trevor Siemian (Greg Zuerlein Kick)WSH 0 – 10 NYJ · NYJ 69% → 83% +14NYJ 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q19:37Breece Hall 36 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)WSH 0 – 17 NYJ · NYJ 83% → 92% +9NYJ 83% → 92%+9 pts
- Q49:33Chris Rodriguez Jr. 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 21 – 27 NYJ · WSH 2% → 14% +13WSH 2% → 14%+13 pts
- Q44:52Antonio Gibson 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 28 – 27 NYJ · WSH 8% → 55% +47WSH 8% → 55%+47 pts
- Q40:05Greg Zuerlein 54 Yd Field GoalWSH 28 – 30 NYJ · NYJ 5% → >99% +95NYJ 5% → >99%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -4
- NYJ 64%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 19.6 – 23.0 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −20 | WSH: Sam Howell · NYJ: Trevor Siemian, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +102 Elo | NYJ 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 61.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.1 | Points scored | 14.430th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3230.2 | Points allowed | 20.511th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.1 | Margin | −6.127th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.13 | Yards per play | 4.2730th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.01 | Yards allowed per play | 4.583rd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.