New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Trevor SiemianPassing14/26, 110 YDS, 2 INT
- Breece HallRushing6 CAR, 12 YDS
- Xavier GipsonReceiving2 REC, 29 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing21/24, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- Raheem MostertRushing15 CAR, 42 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving8 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:42Jason Sanders 35 Yd Field Goal0–30
- Q38:36Jason Sanders 27 Yd Field Goal0–27
- Q21:03Raheem Mostert 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–24
- Q27:42Jaylen Waddle 60 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)0–17
- Q213:56Jason Sanders 37 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q17:37Raheem Mostert 2 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:37Raheem Mostert 2 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 MIA · MIA 67% → 82% +15MIA 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q213:56Jason Sanders 37 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 10 MIA · MIA 82% → 87% +5MIA 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q27:42Jaylen Waddle 60 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)NYJ 0 – 17 MIA · MIA 88% → 96% +8MIA 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q21:03Raheem Mostert 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)NYJ 0 – 24 MIA · MIA 97% → >99% +3MIA 97% → >99%+3 pts
- Q38:36Jason Sanders 27 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 27 MIA · MIA >99% → >99% +0MIA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -6
- MIA 71%
- Fair odds
- MIA -212
- NYJ +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 19.4 – 24.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +28 | — | NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +156 Elo | MIA 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 67.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.5 | Points scored | 31.62nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.8 | Points allowed | 22.621st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−4.3 | Margin | +9.04th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.43 | Yards per play | 6.732nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.54 | Yards allowed per play | 4.958th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 19th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYJ 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.