Houston Texans at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing10/23, 91 YDS
- Devin SingletaryRushing13 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Brevin JordanReceiving3 REC, 35 YDS
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing27/36, 301 YDS, 2 TD
- Breece HallRushing10 CAR, 40 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving9 REC, 108 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:08Greg Zuerlein 44 Yd Field Goal6–30
- Q44:30Greg Zuerlein 55 Yd Field Goal6–27
- Q46:51Greg Zuerlein 51 Yd Field Goal6–24
- Q49:27Breece Hall 3 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)6–21
- Q30:00Devin Singletary 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola PAT failed)6–14
- Q34:31Xavier Gipson 9 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)0–14
- Q311:05Randall Cobb 15 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:05Randall Cobb 15 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)HOU 0 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 42% → 68% +26NYJ 42% → 68%+26 pts
- Q34:31Xavier Gipson 9 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)HOU 0 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 73% → 92% +19NYJ 73% → 92%+19 pts
- Q30:00Devin Singletary 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola PAT failed)HOU 6 – 14 NYJ · HOU 5% → 20% +14HOU 5% → 20%+14 pts
- Q49:27Breece Hall 3 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)HOU 6 – 21 NYJ · NYJ 88% → 99% +11NYJ 88% → 99%+11 pts
- Q46:51Greg Zuerlein 51 Yd Field GoalHOU 6 – 24 NYJ · NYJ >99% → >99% +0NYJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 66%
- Fair odds
- HOU -160
- NYJ +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 22.3 – 18.9 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +21 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +116 Elo | HOU 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 14.330th of 32 |
| 12th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 20.913th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+2.7 | Margin | −6.727th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.78 | Yards per play | 4.3630th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 4.672nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 17th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.