Denver Broncos at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing15/26, 186 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 46 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving2 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing16/27, 274 YDS, 1 TD
- Dameon PierceRushing15 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving9 REC, 191 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:04Russell Wilson 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)17–22
- Q414:16Nico Collins 3 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–22
- Q34:47Courtland Sutton 45 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)10–16
- Q38:51Matt Ammendola 38 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q21:24Wil Lutz 34 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q212:54Matt Ammendola 38 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q13:49Dameon Pierce 3 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)0–10
- Q110:11Matt Ammendola 29 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:11Matt Ammendola 29 Yd Field GoalDEN 0 – 3 HOU · HOU 54% → 62% +8HOU 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q13:49Dameon Pierce 3 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)DEN 0 – 10 HOU · HOU 62% → 79% +17HOU 62% → 79%+17 pts
- Q34:47Courtland Sutton 45 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 10 – 16 HOU · DEN 7% → 24% +17DEN 7% → 24%+17 pts
- Q414:16Nico Collins 3 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DEN 10 – 22 HOU · HOU 80% → 95% +15HOU 80% → 95%+15 pts
- Q412:04Russell Wilson 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 17 – 22 HOU · DEN 4% → 23% +19DEN 4% → 23%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 54%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- DEN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 21.9 – 23.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DEN: Russell Wilson · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +28 Elo | HOU 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 23.510th of 32 |
| 29th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 21.114th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.1 | Margin | +2.511th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.18 | Yards per play | 5.805th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.07 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4624th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.