Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing18/27, 197 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftRushing11 CAR, 39 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving9 REC, 94 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing24/39, 271 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing16 CAR, 59 YDS
- Jake FergusonReceiving5 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:08Brandon Aubrey 50 Yd Field Goal13–33
- Q49:40Brandon Aubrey 45 Yd Field Goal13–30
- Q34:49Brandon Aubrey 59 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q310:41Jalen Carter 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Elliott Kick)13–24
- Q20:20Michael Gallup 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)6–24
- Q21:48Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q26:14Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–17
- Q212:34Jake Elliott 52 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q10:50Brandon Aubrey 60 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:00CeeDee Lamb 13 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:00CeeDee Lamb 13 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)PHI 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 55% → 72% +17DAL 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q212:34Jake Elliott 52 Yd Field GoalPHI 3 – 10 DAL · PHI 20% → 27% +7PHI 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q26:14Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)PHI 3 – 17 DAL · DAL 75% → 89% +14DAL 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q20:20Michael Gallup 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)PHI 6 – 24 DAL · DAL 86% → 95% +10DAL 86% → 95%+10 pts
- Q310:41Jalen Carter 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 13 – 24 DAL · PHI 4% → 13% +9PHI 4% → 13%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1.5
- DAL 55%
- Fair odds
- DAL -122
- PHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 23.5 – 24.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1627 | 1628 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +37 Elo | DAL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.4 | Points scored | 32.31st of 32 |
| 25th of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 18.34th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+3.4 | Margin | +14.01st of 32 |
| 12th of 325.39 | Yards per play | 5.716th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 4.805th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 325–1 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.