Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing19/34, 271 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- David MontgomeryRushing14 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing26/38, 345 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing16 CAR, 49 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving13 REC, 227 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:23Amon-Ra St. Brown 11 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–20
- Q41:41Brandon Aubrey 43 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q47:20Brandin Cooks 8 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)13–17
- Q412:18Michael Badgley 30 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q30:23Brandon Aubrey 51 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q34:34David Montgomery 3 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)10–7
- Q13:26CeeDee Lamb 92 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–7
- Q110:46Michael Badgley 41 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:26CeeDee Lamb 92 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DET 3 – 7 DAL · DAL 47% → 66% +19DAL 47% → 66%+19 pts
- Q34:34David Montgomery 3 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)DET 10 – 7 DAL · DET 30% → 60% +30DET 30% → 60%+30 pts
- Q412:18Michael Badgley 30 Yd Field GoalDET 13 – 10 DAL · DET 47% → 64% +16DET 47% → 64%+16 pts
- Q47:20Brandin Cooks 8 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DET 13 – 17 DAL · DAL 31% → 78% +47DAL 31% → 78%+47 pts
- Q40:23Amon-Ra St. Brown 11 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DET 19 – 20 DAL · DET <1% → 21% +21DET <1% → 21%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1.5
- DAL 56%
- Fair odds
- DAL -125
- DET +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 23.6 – 25.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DET: Jared Goff · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +44 Elo | DAL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.5 | Points scored | 30.12nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3223.7 | Points allowed | 19.15th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+3.8 | Margin | +11.03rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.83 | Yards per play | 5.547th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.39 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0110th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.