Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing30/40, 257 YDS, 1 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing15 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving12 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Nick MullensPassing22/36, 411 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT
- Ty ChandlerRushing8 CAR, 17 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving6 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:19Greg Joseph 26 Yd Field Goal30–24
- Q411:07Jahmyr Gibbs 3 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)30–21
- Q34:38Amon-Ra St. Brown 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)23–21
- Q311:56K.J. Osborn 6 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)17–21
- Q20:29Justin Jefferson 26 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)17–14
- Q21:48Jahmyr Gibbs 14 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)17–7
- Q25:05Michael Badgley 37 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q12:51Ty Chandler 2 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)7–7
- Q17:13David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:48Jahmyr Gibbs 14 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)DET 17 – 7 MIN · DET 65% → 84% +19DET 65% → 84%+19 pts
- Q20:29Justin Jefferson 26 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)DET 17 – 14 MIN · MIN 16% → 35% +19MIN 16% → 35%+19 pts
- Q311:56K.J. Osborn 6 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)DET 17 – 21 MIN · MIN 34% → 60% +26MIN 34% → 60%+26 pts
- Q34:38Amon-Ra St. Brown 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)DET 23 – 21 MIN · DET 37% → 63% +26DET 37% → 63%+26 pts
- Q411:07Jahmyr Gibbs 3 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)DET 30 – 21 MIN · DET 64% → 92% +27DET 64% → 92%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 57%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- MIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 23.5 – 21.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −64 | DET: Jared Goff · MIN: Nick Mullens, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +50 Elo | DET 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 20.721st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.6 | Points allowed | 19.26th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+3.6 | Margin | +1.510th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.89 | Yards per play | 5.4211th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9810th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.