Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing27/37, 217 YDS
- Justin FieldsRushing12 CAR, 59 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving11 REC, 114 YDS
Vikings- Joshua DobbsPassing22/32, 185 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing10 CAR, 52 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving5 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:10Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field Goal12–10
- Q45:54T.J. Hockenson 17 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)9–10
- Q414:15Cairo Santos 55 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q36:59Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q20:00Greg Joseph 34 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q213:35Cairo Santos 25 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:00Greg Joseph 34 Yd Field GoalCHI 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 53% → 63% +10MIN 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q36:59Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field GoalCHI 6 – 3 MIN · CHI 38% → 51% +12CHI 38% → 51%+12 pts
- Q414:15Cairo Santos 55 Yd Field GoalCHI 9 – 3 MIN · CHI 56% → 70% +14CHI 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q45:54T.J. Hockenson 17 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Greg Joseph Kick)CHI 9 – 10 MIN · MIN 15% → 64% +49MIN 15% → 64%+49 pts
- Q40:10Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field GoalCHI 12 – 10 MIN · CHI 11% → >99% +88CHI 11% → >99%+88 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Vikings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6.5
- MIN 72%
- Fair odds
- MIN -220
- CHI +220 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 19.3 – 24.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −16 | CHI: Justin Fields · MIN: Joshua Dobbs, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +165 Elo | MIN 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3220.9 | Points scored | 23.013th of 32 |
| 29th of 3226.0 | Points allowed | 20.913th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−5.1 | Margin | +2.112th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.03 | Yards per play | 5.599th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.30 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0510th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 28th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.