Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing16/23, 169 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin FieldsRushing18 CAR, 104 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving7 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing23/35, 236 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- David MontgomeryRushing12 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving8 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:22Justin Fields Fumble Forced by Aidan Hutchinson Out of Bounds for a Safety26–31
- Q40:29David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Jared Goff Pass to Sam LaPorta for Two-Point Conversion)26–29
- Q42:59Jameson Williams 32 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)26–21
- Q44:15Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field Goal26–14
- Q414:12Cairo Santos 40 Yd Field Goal23–14
- Q34:41DJ Moore 39 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)20–14
- Q36:41Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q20:11Amon-Ra St. Brown 7 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)10–14
- Q21:47Cairo Santos 31 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q29:23Jahmyr Gibbs 2 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q19:23D'Onta Foreman 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:23D'Onta Foreman 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 0 DET · CHI 29% → 46% +17CHI 29% → 46%+17 pts
- Q29:23Jahmyr Gibbs 2 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)CHI 7 – 7 DET · DET 48% → 69% +21DET 48% → 69%+21 pts
- Q20:11Amon-Ra St. Brown 7 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)CHI 10 – 14 DET · DET 56% → 78% +22DET 56% → 78%+22 pts
- Q34:41DJ Moore 39 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 20 – 14 DET · CHI 33% → 62% +30CHI 33% → 62%+30 pts
- Q40:29David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Jared Goff Pass to Sam LaPorta for Two-Point Conversion)CHI 26 – 29 DET · DET <1% → 98% +98DET <1% → 98%+98 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -8
- DET 76%
- Fair odds
- DET -263
- CHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 19.3 – 26.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | CHI: Justin Fields · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +196 Elo | DET 75.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 72.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3220.4 | Points scored | 26.86th of 32 |
| 27th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 22.620th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−5.1 | Margin | +4.29th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.07 | Yards per play | 5.934th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2417th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.