Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each quarter. Above the line favors LV.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Nick MullensPassing9/13, 83 YDS
- Alexander MattisonRushing10 CAR, 66 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving5 REC, 53 YDS
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing21/32, 171 YDS, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing13 CAR, 34 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving7 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:57Greg Joseph 36 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:57Greg Joseph 36 Yd Field GoalMIN 3 – 0 LV · MIN 51% → 86% +35MIN 51% → 86%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Vikings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- LV +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.4 – 20.0 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −24 | +6 | MIN: Joshua Dobbs, usually Kirk Cousins · LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +62 Elo | MIN 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 16.827th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.2 | Points allowed | 21.316th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+1.8 | Margin | −4.527th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.54 | Yards per play | 4.8525th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.01 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3622nd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.