Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing27/34, 298 YDS, 2 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing15 CAR, 55 YDS, 2 TD
- Rashee RiceReceiving8 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing23/33, 248 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing20 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving6 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:11Harrison Butker 32 Yd Field Goal31–17
- Q413:40Rashee Rice 39 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)28–17
- Q32:09Daniel Carlson 34 Yd Field Goal21–17
- Q39:15Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)21–14
- Q20:25Justin Watson 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)14–14
- Q26:38Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)7–14
- Q212:41Josh Jacobs 63 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–14
- Q19:32Jakobi Meyers 18 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:32Jakobi Meyers 18 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)KC 0 – 7 LV · LV 41% → 59% +18LV 41% → 59%+18 pts
- Q26:38Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 14 LV · KC 18% → 36% +18KC 18% → 36%+18 pts
- Q20:25Justin Watson 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 14 LV · KC 33% → 57% +24KC 33% → 57%+24 pts
- Q39:15Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 21 – 14 LV · KC 56% → 80% +24KC 56% → 80%+24 pts
- Q413:40Rashee Rice 39 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 28 – 17 LV · KC 74% → 94% +20KC 74% → 94%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -4
- KC 63%
- Fair odds
- KC -149
- LV +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 21.4 – 18.6 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −4 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +95 Elo | KC 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 16.826th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3216.4 | Points allowed | 20.511th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.1 | Margin | −3.625th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 4.7427th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.74 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3020th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.