Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing20/35, 161 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing11 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh ReynoldsReceiving3 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing19/33, 223 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin FieldsRushing12 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving6 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:20Cairo Santos 28 Yd Field Goal13–28
- Q414:12Justin Fields 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–25
- Q31:36DJ Moore 38 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos PAT blocked)13–19
- Q38:38Cairo Santos 25 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q20:26Josh Reynolds 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)13–10
- Q26:59Jahmyr Gibbs 12 Yd Run (Riley Patterson PAT failed)6–10
- Q11:22Cairo Santos 46 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:17DJ Moore 16 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:17DJ Moore 16 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)DET 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 40% → 58% +18CHI 40% → 58%+18 pts
- Q26:59Jahmyr Gibbs 12 Yd Run (Riley Patterson PAT failed)DET 6 – 10 CHI · DET 28% → 46% +18DET 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q20:26Josh Reynolds 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 13 – 10 CHI · DET 44% → 68% +24DET 44% → 68%+24 pts
- Q31:36DJ Moore 38 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos PAT blocked)DET 13 – 19 CHI · CHI 44% → 72% +27CHI 44% → 72%+27 pts
- Q414:12Justin Fields 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DET 13 – 25 CHI · CHI 74% → 92% +18CHI 74% → 92%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 64%
- Fair odds
- DET -155
- CHI +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 24.7 – 21.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | DET: Jared Goff · CHI: Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +97 Elo | DET 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 20.221st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 24.727th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+3.4 | Margin | −4.525th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.93 | Yards per play | 5.0024th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2619th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 2nd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.