Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing22/32, 268 YDS, 3 TD
- AJ DillonRushing14 CAR, 43 YDS
- Christian WatsonReceiving5 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing29/44, 332 YDS, 2 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing15 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving9 REC, 95 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:41Josh Reynolds 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jared Goff Pass to Sam LaPorta for Two-Point Conversion)29–22
- Q33:30Christian Watson 16 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–14
- Q311:46David Montgomery 6 Yd Run (David Montgomery Run for Two-Point Conversion)23–14
- Q25:56Anders Carlson 43 Yd Field Goal23–6
- Q12:12Jonathan Owens 27 Yd Fumble Return (Anders Carlson PAT failed)20–6
- Q13:08Tucker Kraft 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)14–6
- Q18:30Sam LaPorta 7 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson PAT failed)7–6
- Q112:16Jayden Reed 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:16Jayden Reed 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 7 – 0 DET · GB 30% → 47% +17GB 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q13:08Tucker Kraft 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 14 – 6 DET · GB 34% → 53% +19GB 34% → 53%+19 pts
- Q12:12Jonathan Owens 27 Yd Fumble Return (Anders Carlson PAT failed)GB 20 – 6 DET · GB 53% → 69% +16GB 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q311:46David Montgomery 6 Yd Run (David Montgomery Run for Two-Point Conversion)GB 23 – 14 DET · DET 11% → 32% +21DET 11% → 32%+21 pts
- Q33:30Christian Watson 16 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)GB 29 – 14 DET · GB 76% → 92% +16GB 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 74%
- Fair odds
- DET -243
- GB +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 19.0 – 25.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | GB: Jordan Love · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +178 Elo | DET 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 70.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.2 | Points scored | 27.26th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.2 | Points allowed | 22.922nd of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +4.39th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.20 | Yards per play | 5.914th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.08 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1716th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GB 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.