Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Nick MullensPassing26/33, 303 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Ty ChandlerRushing23 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- Jordan AddisonReceiving6 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing29/42, 324 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing10 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving4 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT3:11Evan McPherson 29 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q40:39Tee Higgins 21 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)24–24
- Q43:48Jordan Addison 1 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)24–17
- Q47:46Joe Mixon 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)17–17
- Q414:56Tee Higgins 13 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)17–10
- Q34:32Greg Joseph 39 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q310:46Jordan Addison 37 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)14–3
- Q12:23Ty Chandler 1 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)7–3
- Q18:41Evan McPherson 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:46Jordan Addison 37 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 14 – 3 CIN · MIN 55% → 79% +24MIN 55% → 79%+24 pts
- Q47:46Joe Mixon 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)MIN 17 – 17 CIN · CIN 14% → 56% +42CIN 14% → 56%+42 pts
- Q43:48Jordan Addison 1 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 24 – 17 CIN · MIN 46% → 95% +49MIN 46% → 95%+49 pts
- Q40:39Tee Higgins 21 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)MIN 24 – 24 CIN · CIN <1% → 52% +52CIN <1% → 52%+52 pts
- OT3:11Evan McPherson 29 Yd Field GoalMIN 24 – 27 CIN · CIN 54% → 82% +28CIN 54% → 82%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bengals 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -4.5
- CIN 65%
- Fair odds
- CIN -187
- MIN +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 18.8 – 23.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −77 | −9 | MIN: Nick Mullens, usually Kirk Cousins · CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +109 Elo | CIN 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 65.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.5 | Points scored | 21.517th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.6 | Points allowed | 22.118th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+1.8 | Margin | −0.516th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.34 | Yards per play | 5.2015th of 32 |
| 8th of 324.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9831st of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–2 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.