Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing26/39, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Zack MossRushing13 CAR, 28 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving8 REC, 95 YDS
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing18/24, 275 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing21 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- Chase BrownReceiving3 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Evan McPherson 35 Yd Field Goal14–34
- Q411:14Evan McPherson 32 Yd Field Goal14–31
- Q32:59Jake Browning 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)14–28
- Q311:38Tanner Hudson 11 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)14–21
- Q21:31Ronnie Harrison Jr. 36 Yd Interception Return (Gardner Minshew Pass to Michael Pittman Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q21:56Mo Alie-Cox 2 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay PAT failed)6–14
- Q210:18Joe Mixon 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)0–14
- Q16:31Chase Brown 54 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:31Chase Brown 54 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)IND 0 – 7 CIN · CIN 50% → 68% +18CIN 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q210:18Joe Mixon 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)IND 0 – 14 CIN · CIN 70% → 86% +16CIN 70% → 86%+16 pts
- Q21:31Ronnie Harrison Jr. 36 Yd Interception Return (Gardner Minshew Pass to Michael Pittman Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)IND 14 – 14 CIN · IND 25% → 50% +26IND 25% → 50%+26 pts
- Q311:38Tanner Hudson 11 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)IND 14 – 21 CIN · CIN 50% → 74% +25CIN 50% → 74%+25 pts
- Q32:59Jake Browning 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)IND 14 – 28 CIN · CIN 79% → 95% +16CIN 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- IND 50%
- Fair odds
- IND -102
- CIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 22.9 – 22.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +19 | −25 | IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN 0 Elo | CIN 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 50.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 20.520th of 32 |
| 27th of 3224.7 | Points allowed | 22.822nd of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −2.321st of 32 |
| 16th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 5.0820th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.13 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1032nd of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 4th of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.