Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing26/42, 312 YDS, 2 TD
- Zack MossRushing19 CAR, 51 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving11 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Will LevisPassing16/33, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing21 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving5 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT2:31Michael Pittman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew31–28
- OT4:19Nick Folk 46 Yd Field Goal25–28
- Q45:26DeAndre Hopkins 3 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk PAT failed)25–25
- Q411:34Matt Gay 28 Yd Field Goal25–19
- Q30:19Amani Hooker Defensive PAT Conversion22–19
- Q30:19Grant Stuard 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–17
- Q34:57Matt Gay 23 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q20:04Matt Gay 46 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q27:39Matt Gay 23 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q210:22Derrick Henry 5 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)7–17
- Q10:13Nick Folk 24 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q112:05Alec Pierce 36 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)7–7
- Q113:20Derrick Henry 22 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:22Derrick Henry 5 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)IND 7 – 17 TEN · TEN 56% → 75% +19TEN 56% → 75%+19 pts
- Q30:19Grant Stuard 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)IND 22 – 17 TEN · IND 47% → 75% +28IND 47% → 75%+28 pts
- Q45:26DeAndre Hopkins 3 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk PAT failed)IND 25 – 25 TEN · TEN 10% → 49% +39TEN 10% → 49%+39 pts
- OT4:19Nick Folk 46 Yd Field GoalIND 25 – 28 TEN · TEN 49% → 75% +26TEN 49% → 75%+26 pts
- OT2:31Michael Pittman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Gardner MinshewIND 31 – 28 TEN · IND 18% → 83% +64IND 18% → 83%+64 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- IND 56%
- Fair odds
- IND -118
- TEN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 22.3 – 21.1 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | +13 | IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +43 Elo | IND 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3224.5 | Points scored | 16.827th of 32 |
| 27th of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 20.410th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −3.524th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 5.0621st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2619th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 6th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 TEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.