Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing18/32, 223 YDS, 1 TD
- Samaje PerineRushing6 CAR, 37 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving3 REC, 74 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing24/34, 278 YDS, 5 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing11 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving7 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:21Sam LaPorta 10 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)17–42
- Q46:28Russell Wilson 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)17–35
- Q412:12Jahmyr Gibbs 12 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)10–35
- Q30:43Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field Goal10–28
- Q37:01Sam LaPorta 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)7–28
- Q310:41Lil'Jordan Humphrey 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)7–21
- Q20:19Amon-Ra St. Brown 15 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)0–21
- Q28:15Jahmyr Gibbs 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)0–14
- Q212:31Sam LaPorta 19 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:31Sam LaPorta 19 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)DEN 0 – 7 DET · DET 53% → 72% +20DET 53% → 72%+20 pts
- Q28:15Jahmyr Gibbs 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)DEN 0 – 14 DET · DET 73% → 88% +15DET 73% → 88%+15 pts
- Q20:19Amon-Ra St. Brown 15 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)DEN 0 – 21 DET · DET 90% → 97% +7DET 90% → 97%+7 pts
- Q310:41Lil'Jordan Humphrey 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 21 DET · DEN 2% → 8% +6DEN 2% → 8%+6 pts
- Q37:01Sam LaPorta 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)DEN 7 – 28 DET · DET 93% → 99% +5DET 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- DEN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 22.8 – 23.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DEN: Russell Wilson · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +12 Elo | DET 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 26.27th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 24.224th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.7 | Margin | +2.07th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.12 | Yards per play | 5.814th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.88 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3120th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.