Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing21/33, 224 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing17 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Courtland SuttonReceiving3 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Easton StickPassing13/24, 179 YDS
- Austin EkelerRushing10 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving3 REC, 91 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:11Adam Trautman 10 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)24–7
- Q410:37Austin Ekeler 3 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)17–7
- Q35:55Courtland Sutton 46 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)17–0
- Q20:05Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q14:55Javonte Williams 3 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:55Javonte Williams 3 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 0 LAC · DEN 47% → 66% +19DEN 47% → 66%+19 pts
- Q20:05Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field GoalDEN 10 – 0 LAC · DEN 72% → 80% +8DEN 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q35:55Courtland Sutton 46 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 17 – 0 LAC · DEN 85% → 96% +11DEN 85% → 96%+11 pts
- Q410:37Austin Ekeler 3 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)DEN 17 – 7 LAC · LAC <1% → 7% +7LAC <1% → 7%+7 pts
- Q43:11Adam Trautman 10 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 24 – 7 LAC · DEN >99% → >99% +0DEN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chargers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 53%
- Fair odds
- LAC -112
- DEN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 21.8 – 22.7 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DEN: Russell Wilson · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +19 Elo | LAC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 52.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 22.911th of 32 |
| 28th of 3225.2 | Points allowed | 21.518th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−3.3 | Margin | +1.412th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.15 | Yards per play | 5.2914th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.03 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6527th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.