Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing22/37, 212 YDS
- Austin EkelerRushing14 CAR, 18 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving5 REC, 58 YDS
Patriots- Bailey ZappePassing13/25, 141 YDS
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing17 CAR, 52 YDS
- DeVante ParkerReceiving4 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q20:44Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q29:09Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:09Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 0 NE · LAC 63% → 71% +8LAC 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q20:44Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field GoalLAC 6 – 0 NE · LAC 71% → 79% +8LAC 71% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chargers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 69%
- Fair odds
- LAC -191
- NE +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 23.4 – 18.9 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −40 | LAC: Justin Herbert · NE: Bailey Zappe, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +141 Elo | LAC 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 65.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3224.5 | Points scored | 13.531st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.5 | Points allowed | 22.521st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −9.129th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.41 | Yards per play | 4.7128th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.78 | Yards allowed per play | 4.938th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.