New England Patriots at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing12/21, 89 YDS, 2 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing21 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- DeMario DouglasReceiving6 REC, 49 YDS
Giants- Tommy DeVitoPassing17/25, 191 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing12 CAR, 46 YDS
- Jalin HyattReceiving5 REC, 109 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:09Randy Bullock 42 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q38:02Rhamondre Stevenson 7 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)7–7
- Q21:53Isaiah Hodgins 12 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:53Isaiah Hodgins 12 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)NE 0 – 7 NYG · NYG 57% → 78% +21NYG 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q38:02Rhamondre Stevenson 7 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 7 – 7 NYG · NE 20% → 44% +25NE 20% → 44%+25 pts
- Q48:09Randy Bullock 42 Yd Field GoalNE 7 – 10 NYG · NYG 53% → 72% +19NYG 53% → 72%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -2.5
- NYG 60%
- Fair odds
- NYG -143
- NE +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 19.0 – 21.5 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +5 | NE: Mac Jones · NYG: Tommy DeVito, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +67 Elo | NYG 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 58.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3214.1 | Points scored | 13.532nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 25.928th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.7 | Margin | −12.432nd of 32 |
| 26th of 324.77 | Yards per play | 4.1331st of 32 |
| 8th of 324.97 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8529th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.