Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing20/32, 253 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing12 CAR, 38 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving6 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing24/37, 293 YDS, 1 TD
- Raheem MostertRushing11 CAR, 46 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving9 REC, 99 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jason Sanders 29 Yd Field Goal20–22
- Q43:27Brandin Cooks 8 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)20–19
- Q412:31Brandon Aubrey 33 Yd Field Goal13–19
- Q31:24Jason Sanders 35 Yd Field Goal10–19
- Q35:28Brandon Aubrey 43 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q38:59Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q20:17Raheem Mostert 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–13
- Q24:31Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q11:30CeeDee Lamb 49 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–3
- Q12:50Jason Sanders 57 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:30CeeDee Lamb 49 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 3 MIA · DAL 38% → 58% +20DAL 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q24:31Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field GoalDAL 7 – 6 MIA · MIA 40% → 50% +10MIA 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q20:17Raheem Mostert 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)DAL 7 – 13 MIA · MIA 49% → 73% +23MIA 49% → 73%+23 pts
- Q43:27Brandin Cooks 8 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 20 – 19 MIA · DAL 5% → 59% +54DAL 5% → 59%+54 pts
- Q40:00Jason Sanders 29 Yd Field GoalDAL 20 – 22 MIA · MIA 0% → 100% +100MIA 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 23.8 – 25.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1616 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +28 Elo | MIA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.8 | Points scored | 31.51st of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.9 | Points allowed | 21.013th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.9 | Margin | +10.54th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.54 | Yards per play | 6.632nd of 32 |
| 8th of 324.94 | Yards allowed per play | 4.754th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.