Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing21/34, 134 YDS, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing11 CAR, 52 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 53 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing7/15, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing25 CAR, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving4 REC, 48 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:48CeeDee Lamb 3 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–31
- Q412:30James Cook 24 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)3–31
- Q32:36Tyler Bass 23 Yd Field Goal3–24
- Q21:36Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)3–21
- Q27:13Brandon Aubrey 32 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q212:52James Cook 18 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–14
- Q18:06Latavius Murray 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:06Latavius Murray 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)DAL 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 45% → 63% +18BUF 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q212:52James Cook 18 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)DAL 0 – 14 BUF · BUF 65% → 82% +17BUF 65% → 82%+17 pts
- Q27:13Brandon Aubrey 32 Yd Field GoalDAL 3 – 14 BUF · DAL 16% → 22% +6DAL 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q21:36Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)DAL 3 – 21 BUF · BUF 80% → 93% +13BUF 80% → 93%+13 pts
- Q32:36Tyler Bass 23 Yd Field GoalDAL 3 – 24 BUF · BUF 98% → >99% +1BUF 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 58%
- Fair odds
- DAL -126
- BUF +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 24.2 – 22.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1661 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +55 Elo | DAL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3232.4 | Points scored | 26.86th of 32 |
| 4th of 3217.9 | Points allowed | 18.85th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+14.5 | Margin | +8.05th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.68 | Yards per play | 5.775th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.90 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2820th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.