Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing23/42, 233 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing10 CAR, 58 YDS
- James Cook IIIReceiving5 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing25/43, 271 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing11 CAR, 39 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving6 REC, 83 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:54Tyler Bass 39 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q411:31Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q33:30Rashee Rice 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–14
- Q38:38Tyler Bass 31 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q21:19Jerick McKinnon 7 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)14–7
- Q211:50Josh Allen 6 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)14–0
- Q13:43James Cook 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:43James Cook 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 0 KC · BUF 43% → 62% +19BUF 43% → 62%+19 pts
- Q211:50Josh Allen 6 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 14 – 0 KC · BUF 64% → 81% +17BUF 64% → 81%+17 pts
- Q21:19Jerick McKinnon 7 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)BUF 14 – 7 KC · KC 14% → 32% +18KC 14% → 32%+18 pts
- Q33:30Rashee Rice 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)BUF 17 – 14 KC · KC 15% → 41% +26KC 15% → 41%+26 pts
- Q41:54Tyler Bass 39 Yd Field GoalBUF 20 – 17 KC · BUF 49% → 85% +36BUF 49% → 85%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -2
- KC 57%
- Fair odds
- KC -136
- BUF +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 20.6 – 22.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +51 Elo | KC 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 57.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 22.911th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218.9 | Points allowed | 17.33rd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.4 | Margin | +5.66th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.90 | Yards per play | 5.647th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 4.979th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 28th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.