Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing21/33, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing18 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving4 REC, 81 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing25/36, 267 YDS, 3 TD
- AJ DillonRushing18 CAR, 73 YDS
- Romeo DoubsReceiving4 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:09Anders Carlson 48 Yd Field Goal19–27
- Q46:03Anders Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal19–24
- Q414:51Noah Gray 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)19–21
- Q35:23Christian Watson 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)12–21
- Q39:39Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q22:19Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q210:39Christian Watson 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)3–14
- Q10:00Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:13Ben Sims 1 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:39Christian Watson 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)KC 3 – 14 GB · GB 57% → 76% +19GB 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q39:39Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)KC 12 – 14 GB · KC 25% → 46% +21KC 25% → 46%+21 pts
- Q35:23Christian Watson 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)KC 12 – 21 GB · GB 55% → 81% +26GB 55% → 81%+26 pts
- Q414:51Noah Gray 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 19 – 21 GB · KC 14% → 43% +29KC 14% → 43%+29 pts
- Q46:03Anders Carlson 40 Yd Field GoalKC 19 – 24 GB · GB 64% → 83% +19GB 64% → 83%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -2
- KC 58%
- Fair odds
- KC -127
- GB +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 21.6 – 19.9 GB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | KC: Patrick Mahomes · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +56 Elo | KC 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 55.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 21.019th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3216.5 | Points allowed | 20.49th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.8 | Margin | +0.615th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.65 | Yards per play | 5.3413th of 32 |
| 8th of 324.87 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1714th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 4th of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.