New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing27/40, 319 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing9 CAR, 19 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving9 REC, 123 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing24/34, 328 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing22 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving9 REC, 164 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:53A.T. Perry 35 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Derek Carr Pass to Chris Olave for Two-Point Conversion)22–30
- Q46:33Juwan Johnson 5 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)14–30
- Q412:44Lucas Havrisik 32 Yd Field Goal7–30
- Q35:42Kyren Williams 10 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)7–27
- Q311:10Lucas Havrisik 22 Yd Field Goal7–20
- Q20:21Demarcus Robinson 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)7–17
- Q22:28Rashid Shaheed 45 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–10
- Q210:23Lucas Havrisik 20 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q12:28Puka Nacua 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:28Puka Nacua 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)NO 0 – 7 LAR · LAR 57% → 75% +18LAR 57% → 75%+18 pts
- Q210:23Lucas Havrisik 20 Yd Field GoalNO 0 – 10 LAR · LAR 76% → 82% +7LAR 76% → 82%+7 pts
- Q22:28Rashid Shaheed 45 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 10 LAR · NO 16% → 35% +19NO 16% → 35%+19 pts
- Q20:21Demarcus Robinson 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)NO 7 – 17 LAR · LAR 66% → 85% +19LAR 66% → 85%+19 pts
- Q35:42Kyren Williams 10 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)NO 7 – 27 LAR · LAR 93% → 99% +5LAR 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -2
- LAR 58%
- Fair odds
- LAR -135
- NO +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.7 – 22.9 LAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +4 | NO: Derek Carr · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +55 Elo | LAR 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 57.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 23.49th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 22.119th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+3.0 | Margin | +1.212th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.05 | Yards per play | 5.538th of 32 |
| 11th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2720th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 13th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.