New York Giants at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tommy DeVitoPassing20/34, 177 YDS
- Tommy DeVitoRushing4 CAR, 36 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving4 REC, 63 YDS
Saints- Derek CarrPassing23/28, 218 YDS, 3 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing16 CAR, 66 YDS
- Alvin KamaraReceiving5 REC, 44 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:47Jimmy Graham 1 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)6–24
- Q34:17Blake Grupe 50 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q38:39Juwan Johnson 23 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)6–14
- Q20:00Jamie Gillan 40 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q10:29Keith Kirkwood 7 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)3–7
- Q110:00Randy Bullock 56 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:00Randy Bullock 56 Yd Field GoalNYG 3 – 0 NO · NYG 43% → 51% +8NYG 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q10:29Keith Kirkwood 7 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NYG 3 – 7 NO · NO 48% → 67% +20NO 48% → 67%+20 pts
- Q20:00Jamie Gillan 40 Yd Field GoalNYG 6 – 7 NO · NYG 32% → 41% +10NYG 32% → 41%+10 pts
- Q38:39Juwan Johnson 23 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NYG 6 – 14 NO · NO 58% → 82% +24NO 58% → 82%+24 pts
- Q34:17Blake Grupe 50 Yd Field GoalNYG 6 – 17 NO · NO 84% → 91% +7NO 84% → 91%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Saints 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2.5
- NO 58%
- Fair odds
- NO -133
- NYG +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 19.7 – 21.7 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | — | NYG: Tommy DeVito, usually Daniel Jones · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +58 Elo | NO 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 57.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3214.1 | Points scored | 21.915th of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.2 | Points allowed | 20.110th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.1 | Margin | +1.88th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.32 | Yards per play | 5.0522nd of 32 |
| 28th of 325.64 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1112th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.