Green Bay Packers at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing25/39, 218 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- AJ DillonRushing15 CAR, 53 YDS
- Tucker KraftReceiving4 REC, 64 YDS
Giants- Tommy DeVitoPassing17/21, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing20 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving6 REC, 79 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Randy Bullock 37 Yd Field Goal22–24
- Q41:33Malik Heath 6 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)22–21
- Q45:30Anders Carlson 48 Yd Field Goal16–21
- Q31:28Isaiah Hodgins 8 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)13–21
- Q37:31Anders Carlson 32 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q311:22Saquon Barkley 1 Yd Run (Randy Bullock Kick)10–14
- Q20:13Anders Carlson 36 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q211:55Saquon Barkley 5 Yd Run (Randy Bullock Kick)7–7
- Q11:01Jayden Reed 16 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:55Saquon Barkley 5 Yd Run (Randy Bullock Kick)GB 7 – 7 NYG · NYG 24% → 43% +19NYG 24% → 43%+19 pts
- Q311:22Saquon Barkley 1 Yd Run (Randy Bullock Kick)GB 10 – 14 NYG · NYG 34% → 60% +26NYG 34% → 60%+26 pts
- Q31:28Isaiah Hodgins 8 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)GB 13 – 21 NYG · NYG 50% → 80% +30NYG 50% → 80%+30 pts
- Q41:33Malik Heath 6 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)GB 22 – 21 NYG · GB 3% → 66% +64GB 3% → 66%+64 pts
- Q40:00Randy Bullock 37 Yd Field GoalGB 22 – 24 NYG · NYG 0% → 100% +100NYG 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -3.5
- GB 62%
- Fair odds
- GB -140
- NYG +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 21.6 – 19.3 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +10 | GB: Jordan Love · NYG: Tommy DeVito, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +86 Elo | GB 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 58.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.5 | Points scored | 13.331st of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 24.326th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.3 | Margin | −11.132nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325.40 | Yards per play | 4.1431st of 32 |
| 15th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7029th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 2–323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.