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Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast

FinalNFC Wild Card Playoffs

Away

Packers

9-8

48–32

at

Home

Cowboys

12-5

GB 36%DAL 64%

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AT&T Stadium · Fox

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored GB favored12 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4DAL50%GB

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Packers
Cowboys

Scoring summary

  • Q43:25Jake Ferguson 14 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Run for Two-Point Conversion)48–32
  • Q45:54Jake Ferguson 7 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Rico Dowdle Run for Two-Point Conversion)48–24
  • Q410:23Romeo Doubs 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)48–16
  • Q31:27Luke Musgrave 38 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)41–16
  • Q33:03Tony Pollard 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey PAT failed)34–16
  • Q36:38Aaron Jones 9 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)34–10
  • Q39:23Brandon Aubrey 34 Yd Field Goal27–10
  • Q20:00Jake Ferguson 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)27–7
  • Q21:50Darnell Savage 64 Yd Interception Return (Anders Carlson Kick)27–0
  • Q23:23Dontayvion Wicks 20 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson PAT failed)20–0
  • Q214:15Aaron Jones 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)14–0
  • Q17:08Aaron Jones 3 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)7–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q17:08Aaron Jones 3 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 7 – 0 DAL · GB 37% → 56% +19
  2. Q214:15Aaron Jones 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 14 – 0 DAL · GB 58% → 77% +18
  3. Q23:23Dontayvion Wicks 20 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson PAT failed)GB 20 – 0 DAL · GB 82% → 92% +10
  4. Q21:50Darnell Savage 64 Yd Interception Return (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 27 – 0 DAL · GB 93% → 98% +5
  5. Q36:38Aaron Jones 9 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 34 – 10 DAL · GB 94% → 99% +5

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Cowboys 64%

SolidMiss
GB 36%DAL 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DAL 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL -4
DAL 65%
Fair odds
DAL -175
GB +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
GB 20.6 – 24.6 DAL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorGBDALWhy
Team rating15541624Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks——GB: Jordan Love · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score)
Elo ratingsDAL +106 EloDAL 64.8%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 59.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 63.6%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys compared, with each team's league rank
GBStatDAL
12th of 3222.5Points scored29.91st of 32
10th of 3220.6Points allowed18.55th of 32
10th of 32+1.9Margin+11.42nd of 32
8th of 325.58Yards per play5.636th of 32
20th of 325.37Yards allowed per play5.028th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 107–32nd of 32
15th of 324–5Road vs home8–01st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PackersCowboys
1350145015501650league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.