Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing24/33, 256 YDS, 3 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing20 CAR, 120 YDS
- Bo MeltonReceiving6 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Nick MullensPassing13/22, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- Ty ChandlerRushing10 CAR, 40 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving5 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:11Anders Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal33–10
- Q414:06Johnny Mundt 6 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)30–10
- Q30:49Bo Melton 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)30–3
- Q20:08Jayden Reed 25 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson PAT failed)23–3
- Q23:59Jordan Love 2 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)17–3
- Q29:25Greg Joseph 54 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q15:10Jayden Reed 33 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)10–0
- Q16:43Anders Carlson 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:43Anders Carlson 34 Yd Field GoalGB 3 – 0 MIN · GB 50% → 58% +8GB 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q15:10Jayden Reed 33 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 10 – 0 MIN · GB 58% → 75% +17GB 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q29:25Greg Joseph 54 Yd Field GoalGB 10 – 3 MIN · MIN 22% → 30% +7MIN 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q23:59Jordan Love 2 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 17 – 3 MIN · GB 72% → 88% +16GB 72% → 88%+16 pts
- Q20:08Jayden Reed 25 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson PAT failed)GB 23 – 3 MIN · GB 89% → 96% +7GB 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Vikings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -101
- GB +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 21.5 – 21.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −69 | GB: Jordan Love · MIN: Jaren Hall, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 20.921st of 32 |
| 18th of 3222.1 | Points allowed | 19.99th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +1.013th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.41 | Yards per play | 5.549th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 4.987th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GB 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.