Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing17/28, 219 YDS, 2 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing21 CAR, 127 YDS
- Romeo DoubsReceiving4 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing23/36, 312 YDS, 2 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing16 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ CharkReceiving6 REC, 98 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:19Anders Carlson 32 Yd Field Goal33–30
- Q44:05DJ Chark Jr. 10 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Raheem Blackshear Run for Two-Point Conversion)30–30
- Q47:14DJ Chark Jr. 11 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro PAT failed)30–22
- Q414:57Romeo Doubs 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)30–16
- Q35:11Chuba Hubbard 4 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro PAT failed)23–16
- Q20:49Dontayvion Wicks 21 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)23–10
- Q27:51Anders Carlson 53 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q210:29Ihmir Smith-Marsette 20 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)13–10
- Q214:57Jordan Love 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson PAT failed)13–3
- Q15:24Eddy Pineiro 52 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q17:30AJ Dillon 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:30AJ Dillon 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 7 – 0 CAR · GB 64% → 80% +16GB 64% → 80%+16 pts
- Q210:29Ihmir Smith-Marsette 20 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)GB 13 – 10 CAR · CAR 14% → 29% +15CAR 14% → 29%+15 pts
- Q20:49Dontayvion Wicks 21 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 23 – 10 CAR · GB 79% → 92% +13GB 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q44:05DJ Chark Jr. 10 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Raheem Blackshear Run for Two-Point Conversion)GB 30 – 30 CAR · CAR 2% → 46% +44CAR 2% → 46%+44 pts
- Q40:19Anders Carlson 32 Yd Field GoalGB 33 – 30 CAR · GB 51% → >99% +48GB 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -5.5
- GB 69%
- Fair odds
- GB -185
- CAR +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 23.1 – 18.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1302 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | 0 | GB: Jordan Love · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +140 Elo | GB 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 64.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 14.729th of 32 |
| 17th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 24.929th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −10.131st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.38 | Yards per play | 4.0832nd of 32 |
| 24th of 325.44 | Yards allowed per play | 4.947th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.