Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing11/16, 148 YDS
- Khalil HerbertRushing12 CAR, 28 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving4 REC, 64 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing27/32, 316 YDS, 2 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing22 CAR, 111 YDS
- Jayden ReedReceiving4 REC, 112 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:54Anders Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal9–17
- Q413:03Cairo Santos 35 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q39:47Dontayvion Wicks 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)6–14
- Q21:17Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q27:20Dontayvion Wicks 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)3–7
- Q18:54Cairo Santos 50 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:20Dontayvion Wicks 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)CHI 3 – 7 GB · GB 45% → 66% +22GB 45% → 66%+22 pts
- Q21:17Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field GoalCHI 6 – 7 GB · CHI 33% → 43% +10CHI 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q39:47Dontayvion Wicks 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)CHI 6 – 14 GB · GB 57% → 81% +23GB 57% → 81%+23 pts
- Q413:03Cairo Santos 35 Yd Field GoalCHI 9 – 14 GB · CHI 13% → 23% +10CHI 13% → 23%+10 pts
- Q410:54Anders Carlson 25 Yd Field GoalCHI 9 – 17 GB · GB 79% → 89% +11GB 79% → 89%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -1.5
- GB 55%
- Fair odds
- GB -124
- CHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 21.4 – 22.9 GB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | — | CHI: Justin Fields · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +38 Elo | GB 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 55.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 22.912th of 32 |
| 21st of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 21.314th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.611th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.05 | Yards per play | 5.4810th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4222nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 4–318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 GB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.