Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing24/38, 230 YDS, 2 TD
- James ConnerRushing12 CAR, 45 YDS
- James ConnerReceiving5 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing15/27, 170 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Khalil HerbertRushing20 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- Cole KmetReceiving4 REC, 107 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:02Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field Goal16–27
- Q46:37Greg Dortch 38 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–24
- Q31:04Cairo Santos 49 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q312:12Matt Prater 55 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q22:27James Conner 16 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)7–21
- Q27:12Marcedes Lewis 1 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)0–21
- Q212:54Khalil Herbert 11 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)0–14
- Q16:16Justin Fields 3 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:16Justin Fields 3 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)ARI 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 65% → 81% +15CHI 65% → 81%+15 pts
- Q212:54Khalil Herbert 11 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)ARI 0 – 14 CHI · CHI 81% → 92% +11CHI 81% → 92%+11 pts
- Q27:12Marcedes Lewis 1 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)ARI 0 – 21 CHI · CHI 93% → 98% +5CHI 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q22:27James Conner 16 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 7 – 21 CHI · ARI 2% → 7% +5ARI 2% → 7%+5 pts
- Q46:37Greg Dortch 38 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)ARI 16 – 24 CHI · ARI <1% → 5% +5ARI <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bears 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5.5
- CHI 68%
- Fair odds
- CHI -198
- ARI +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 19.7 – 24.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −13 | +6 | ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs · CHI: Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +133 Elo | CHI 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 66.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.5 | Points scored | 20.523rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3226.9 | Points allowed | 23.523rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.4 | Margin | −3.024th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.95 | Yards per play | 4.8826th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2216th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 3–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.