Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing19/40, 166 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Roschon JohnsonRushing5 CAR, 36 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving4 REC, 52 YDS
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing28/44, 374 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Jerome FordRushing8 CAR, 20 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving4 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:32Dustin Hopkins 34 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q43:08Amari Cooper 51 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)17–17
- Q412:27Dustin Hopkins 33 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q37:07Cairo Santos 41 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q313:50Tremaine Edmunds 45 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos Kick)14–7
- Q23:48David Njoku 2 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–7
- Q210:54Cole Kmet 5 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:54Cole Kmet 5 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 0 CLE · CHI 43% → 64% +21CHI 43% → 64%+21 pts
- Q23:48David Njoku 2 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CHI 7 – 7 CLE · CLE 33% → 56% +23CLE 33% → 56%+23 pts
- Q313:50Tremaine Edmunds 45 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 14 – 7 CLE · CHI 44% → 69% +25CHI 44% → 69%+25 pts
- Q43:08Amari Cooper 51 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CHI 17 – 17 CLE · CLE 3% → 52% +49CLE 3% → 52%+49 pts
- Q40:32Dustin Hopkins 34 Yd Field GoalCHI 17 – 20 CLE · CLE 51% → 98% +47CLE 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 58%
- Fair odds
- CLE -139
- CHI +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 20.7 – 23.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | −5 | CHI: Justin Fields · CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +58 Elo | CLE 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.8 | Points scored | 22.212th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 20.914th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.0 | Margin | +1.312th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.01 | Yards per play | 4.5429th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 4.643rd of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 6–12nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.