Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Taylor HeinickePassing10/29, 163 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing15 CAR, 75 YDS
- Tyler AllgeierReceiving1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing20/32, 268 YDS, 1 TD
- Khalil HerbertRushing18 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving9 REC, 159 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:39Khalil Herbert 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)17–37
- Q44:59Cairo Santos 42 Yd Field Goal17–30
- Q412:22Taylor Heinicke 24 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)17–27
- Q31:10Cairo Santos 42 Yd Field Goal10–27
- Q38:29Younghoe Koo 38 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q311:56Cairo Santos 22 Yd Field Goal7–24
- Q24:02Roschon Johnson 2 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)7–21
- Q214:00Tyler Allgeier 75 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–14
- Q214:14Justin Fields 9 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)0–14
- Q18:47DJ Moore 7 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:47DJ Moore 7 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)ATL 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 61% → 77% +16CHI 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q214:14Justin Fields 9 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)ATL 0 – 14 CHI · CHI 78% → 90% +12CHI 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q214:00Tyler Allgeier 75 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 14 CHI · ATL 10% → 22% +12ATL 10% → 22%+12 pts
- Q24:02Roschon Johnson 2 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)ATL 7 – 21 CHI · CHI 79% → 92% +13CHI 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q412:22Taylor Heinicke 24 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 17 – 27 CHI · ATL <1% → 6% +6ATL <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bears 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3.5
- CHI 63%
- Fair odds
- CHI -163
- ATL +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 19.1 – 22.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −26 | +6 | ATL: Taylor Heinicke, usually Desmond Ridder · CHI: Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +91 Elo | CHI 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 61.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.1 | Points scored | 20.921st of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 23.021st of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −2.121st of 32 |
| 15th of 325.17 | Yards per play | 4.9823rd of 32 |
| 7th of 324.89 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2116th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 24th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.