Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing20/37, 201 YDS, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing18 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- Kylen GransonReceiving5 REC, 62 YDS
Falcons- Taylor HeinickePassing23/33, 229 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing12 CAR, 72 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonReceiving7 REC, 50 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:57Younghoe Koo 25 Yd Field Goal10–29
- Q45:46Younghoe Koo 35 Yd Field Goal10–26
- Q414:06Younghoe Koo 41 Yd Field Goal10–23
- Q34:23Matt Gay 33 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q311:13Tyler Allgeier 31 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–20
- Q20:05Younghoe Koo 47 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q23:23Younghoe Koo 23 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q17:42Kyle Pitts 24 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–7
- Q19:24Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:24Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)IND 7 – 0 ATL · IND 63% → 79% +16IND 63% → 79%+16 pts
- Q17:42Kyle Pitts 24 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)IND 7 – 7 ATL · ATL 21% → 37% +16ATL 21% → 37%+16 pts
- Q23:23Younghoe Koo 23 Yd Field GoalIND 7 – 10 ATL · ATL 40% → 50% +10ATL 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q20:05Younghoe Koo 47 Yd Field GoalIND 7 – 13 ATL · ATL 51% → 61% +10ATL 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q311:13Tyler Allgeier 31 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)IND 7 – 20 ATL · ATL 63% → 84% +21ATL 63% → 84%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4.5
- IND 66%
- Fair odds
- IND -177
- ATL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 24.0 – 20.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +24 | −38 | IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · ATL: Taylor Heinicke, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +114 Elo | IND 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 63.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3224.6 | Points scored | 18.426th of 32 |
| 27th of 3224.5 | Points allowed | 19.99th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.419th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 5.0822nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 4.979th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.