Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Mitchell TrubiskyPassing16/23, 169 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing10 CAR, 40 YDS
- Diontae JohnsonReceiving4 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing18/28, 215 YDS, 3 TD
- Trey SermonRushing17 CAR, 88 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving4 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:48Matt Gay 42 Yd Field Goal13–30
- Q49:17Matt Gay 31 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q39:02Matt Gay 29 Yd Field Goal13–24
- Q313:16Mo Alie-Cox 18 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)13–21
- Q20:22D.J. Montgomery 14 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)13–14
- Q211:21Zack Moss 16 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)13–7
- Q214:07Diontae Johnson 4 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Chris Boswell Kick)13–0
- Q11:12Mitch Trubisky 1 Yd Run (Chris Boswell PAT failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:12Mitch Trubisky 1 Yd Run (Chris Boswell PAT failed)PIT 6 – 0 IND · PIT 35% → 52% +17PIT 35% → 52%+17 pts
- Q214:07Diontae Johnson 4 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 13 – 0 IND · PIT 53% → 72% +19PIT 53% → 72%+19 pts
- Q211:21Zack Moss 16 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)PIT 13 – 7 IND · IND 26% → 46% +20IND 26% → 46%+20 pts
- Q20:22D.J. Montgomery 14 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)PIT 13 – 14 IND · IND 41% → 65% +24IND 41% → 65%+24 pts
- Q313:16Mo Alie-Cox 18 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)PIT 13 – 21 IND · IND 65% → 85% +20IND 65% → 85%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 67%
- Fair odds
- IND -198
- PIT +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 19.2 – 24.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −34 | +19 | PIT: Mitchell Trubisky, usually Kenny Pickett · IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +127 Elo | IND 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 66.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3216.2 | Points scored | 24.28th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 25.429th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−3.1 | Margin | −1.219th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.85 | Yards per play | 5.1816th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2315th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.