New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Bailey ZappePassing19/28, 240 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing22 CAR, 68 YDS
- JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving4 REC, 90 YDS
Steelers- Mitchell TrubiskyPassing22/35, 190 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Mitchell TrubiskyRushing8 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- Diontae JohnsonReceiving3 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:44Mitch Trubisky 1 Yd Run (Mitch Trubisky Pass to Pat Freiermuth for Two-Point Conversion)21–18
- Q22:50Diontae Johnson 25 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Chris Boswell Kick)21–10
- Q27:38Hunter Henry 24 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)21–3
- Q214:14Hunter Henry 8 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)14–3
- Q16:39Chris Boswell 56 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q111:12Ezekiel Elliott 11 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:12Ezekiel Elliott 11 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 7 – 0 PIT · NE 31% → 48% +17NE 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q214:14Hunter Henry 8 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 14 – 3 PIT · NE 44% → 64% +20NE 44% → 64%+20 pts
- Q27:38Hunter Henry 24 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 21 – 3 PIT · NE 68% → 85% +17NE 68% → 85%+17 pts
- Q22:50Diontae Johnson 25 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Chris Boswell Kick)NE 21 – 10 PIT · PIT 13% → 29% +16PIT 13% → 29%+16 pts
- Q411:44Mitch Trubisky 1 Yd Run (Mitch Trubisky Pass to Pat Freiermuth for Two-Point Conversion)NE 21 – 18 PIT · PIT 9% → 42% +33PIT 9% → 42%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Steelers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -6.5
- PIT 72%
- Fair odds
- PIT -231
- NE +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 15.7 – 21.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −35 | −41 | NE: Bailey Zappe, usually Mac Jones · PIT: Mitchell Trubisky, usually Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +166 Elo | PIT 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 69.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3212.3 | Points scored | 16.028th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 19.16th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.8 | Margin | −3.122nd of 32 |
| 28th of 324.67 | Yards per play | 4.9325th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3120th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.