Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing22/30, 291 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing11 CAR, 28 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonReceiving7 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Derek CarrPassing22/28, 264 YDS, 4 TD
- Kendre MillerRushing13 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving3 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:10Jamaal Williams 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)17–48
- Q49:02A.T. Perry 6 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)17–41
- Q49:57Blake Grupe 24 Yd Field Goal17–34
- Q38:54Rashid Shaheed 39 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)17–31
- Q313:01Chris Olave 26 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)17–24
- Q20:00Younghoe Koo 30 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q20:56Blake Grupe 24 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q211:04Kendre Miller 3 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)14–14
- Q14:13Bijan Robinson 71 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)14–7
- Q15:01A.T. Perry 18 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q18:42Jonnu Smith 15 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:42Jonnu Smith 15 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 0 NO · ATL 38% → 56% +18ATL 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q15:01A.T. Perry 18 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)ATL 7 – 7 NO · NO 42% → 61% +19NO 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q14:13Bijan Robinson 71 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 14 – 7 NO · ATL 39% → 58% +19ATL 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q211:04Kendre Miller 3 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)ATL 14 – 14 NO · NO 39% → 60% +21NO 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q313:01Chris Olave 26 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)ATL 17 – 24 NO · NO 59% → 81% +22NO 59% → 81%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Saints 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4
- NO 64%
- Fair odds
- NO -167
- ATL +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 19.0 – 22.6 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | — | ATL: Desmond Ridder · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +103 Elo | NO 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 62.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 22.115th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 19.47th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.3 | Margin | +2.89th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.17 | Yards per play | 5.0521st of 32 |
| 6th of 324.97 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2015th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.