New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing24/32, 197 YDS, 2 TD
- Jamaal WilliamsRushing19 CAR, 58 YDS
- Juwan JohnsonReceiving8 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing22/33, 309 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing11 CAR, 42 YDS
- Trey PalmerReceiving4 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:37Chris Godwin 47 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–13
- Q43:48Blake Grupe 38 Yd Field Goal23–7
- Q47:50Trey Palmer 22 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)20–7
- Q34:25Blake Grupe 28 Yd Field Goal20–0
- Q20:09Blake Grupe 45 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q21:53Taysom Hill 22 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)14–0
- Q17:04Juwan Johnson 4 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:04Juwan Johnson 4 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 0 TB · NO 37% → 55% +19NO 37% → 55%+19 pts
- Q21:53Taysom Hill 22 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 14 – 0 TB · NO 63% → 83% +19NO 63% → 83%+19 pts
- Q20:09Blake Grupe 45 Yd Field GoalNO 17 – 0 TB · NO 84% → 89% +6NO 84% → 89%+6 pts
- Q34:25Blake Grupe 28 Yd Field GoalNO 20 – 0 TB · NO 95% → 98% +2NO 95% → 98%+2 pts
- Q47:50Trey Palmer 22 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NO 20 – 7 TB · TB <1% → 2% +2TB <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -5
- TB 66%
- Fair odds
- TB -180
- NO +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 19.5 – 23.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NO: Derek Carr · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +119 Elo | TB 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 21.717th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.8 | Points allowed | 20.111th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+2.3 | Margin | +1.612th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.10 | Yards per play | 5.1219th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.11 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6226th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 20th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.