Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing19/32, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing10 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving5 REC, 61 YDS
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing24/45, 169 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jerome FordRushing12 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- David NjokuReceiving4 REC, 44 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:29Jerome Ford 2 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)33–17
- Q411:51Brandon Aubrey 46 Yd Field Goal33–10
- Q31:27Brandon Aubrey 50 Yd Field Goal30–10
- Q38:42Jerry Jeudy 6 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)27–10
- Q312:59KaVontae Turpin 60 Yd Punt Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)27–3
- Q20:51Brandon Aubrey 40 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q22:06Brandon Aubrey 57 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q25:15Ezekiel Elliott 3 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–3
- Q16:55Brandin Cooks 21 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–3
- Q19:23Dustin Hopkins 51 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:23Dustin Hopkins 51 Yd Field GoalDAL 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 50% → 58% +8CLE 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q16:55Brandin Cooks 21 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 3 CLE · DAL 42% → 61% +19DAL 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q25:15Ezekiel Elliott 3 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 14 – 3 CLE · DAL 63% → 82% +19DAL 63% → 82%+19 pts
- Q22:06Brandon Aubrey 57 Yd Field GoalDAL 17 – 3 CLE · DAL 83% → 89% +6DAL 83% → 89%+6 pts
- Q312:59KaVontae Turpin 60 Yd Punt Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 27 – 3 CLE · DAL 94% → 99% +4DAL 94% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 52%
- Fair odds
- DAL -101
- CLE +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 23.4 – 23.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +3 | DAL: Dak Prescott · CLE: Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +12 Elo | DAL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3229.9 | Points scored | 23.310th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.5 | Points allowed | 21.313th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.4 | Margin | +2.09th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.63 | Yards per play | 4.8128th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 4.572nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 15th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.