Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing27/42, 368 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Jerome FordRushing15 CAR, 25 YDS, 1 TD
- Amari CooperReceiving11 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD
Texans- Davis MillsPassing15/32, 149 YDS, 2 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing9 CAR, 44 YDS
- Dalton SchultzReceiving8 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:12Andrew Beck 1 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)36–22
- Q46:08Nico Collins 5 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Davis Mills Pass to Nico Collins for Two-Point Conversion)36–15
- Q412:31Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Joe Flacco Pass to Amari Cooper for Two-Point Conversion)36–7
- Q32:35Amari Cooper 7 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)28–7
- Q24:16David Njoku 21 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dorian Thompson-Robinson Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–7
- Q211:51Dameon Pierce 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–7
- Q212:04Amari Cooper 75 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)14–0
- Q113:18Jerome Ford 4 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:18Jerome Ford 4 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 7 – 0 HOU · CLE 63% → 78% +15CLE 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q212:04Amari Cooper 75 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 14 – 0 HOU · CLE 79% → 91% +12CLE 79% → 91%+12 pts
- Q211:51Dameon Pierce 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)CLE 14 – 7 HOU · HOU 9% → 21% +12HOU 9% → 21%+12 pts
- Q24:16David Njoku 21 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dorian Thompson-Robinson Run for Two-Point Conversion)CLE 22 – 7 HOU · CLE 80% → 93% +13CLE 80% → 93%+13 pts
- Q32:35Amari Cooper 7 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)CLE 28 – 7 HOU · CLE 97% → >99% +2CLE 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 64%
- Fair odds
- CLE -174
- HOU +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 23.7 – 19.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +1 | −118 | CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson · HOU: Case Keenum, usually C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +97 Elo | CLE 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 21.914th of 32 |
| 12th of 3220.6 | Points allowed | 21.115th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +0.813th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.62 | Yards per play | 5.519th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.53 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2418th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.